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Equity Research Weekly Market Outlook Report By Mansukh 14th May 2011

Weekly Market
SNAPSHOT
Volume & Volitility IndexIndian benchmarks have gone through every possible circumstance in the passing week, to start with it was consolidation which prolonged for three back to back sessions, thereafter followed a day of turmoil for the frontline indices only to sign off the week with an enthusiastic short covering rally. Markets seem to have formed a firm base around the psychological 5,550 and 18,500 levels and are showing little signs of budging from those levels despite the amount of volatility seen in the markets. Investors at large remained hesitant to build on positions ahead of a slew of announcements like IIP data, weekly inflation figures, export data and the outcome of assembly polls. The initial three sessions remained characterized by volatility as traders utilized every small rise to trim down their positions and book profits. Nevertheless, despite the late correction, the frontline indices managed to accumulate around a percent gains in the session as domestic investors cheered the ruling UPA's win against the Left Parties in West Bengal, Kerala and Assam which may strengthen the image of the beleaguered government.

WEEK GONE BY
The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) Sensex remained flat gaining 12.47 points or 0.07% to 18,531.28 for the week ended May 13, 2011. The BSE Mid-cap index shed 19.62 points or 0.29% to 6844.16 and the Small-cap index declined 7.15 points or 0.09% to 8,335.43. On the sectoral front, Capital goods lost 81.26 points or 0.64% to 12688.62, Bankex shed 80.59 points or 0.64% to 12590.17, Oil Gas declined by 46.36 points or 0.47% to 9768.78, IT lost 17.17 points or 0.28% to 6039.60 and Consumer Durables trimming 4.46 points or 0.07% to 3210.24, were the top losers on the BSE while FMCG up by 160.72 points or 4.41% to 3803.26, Realty advancing 82.58 points to 3.94% , Health Care (HC) surging 85.20 points or 1.40% to 6149.40, TECk climbing 18.21 points or 0.50% to 3629.23 and Metal rising 41.02 points or 0.27% to 15404.23 were the main gainers on the sectoral space. The S&P CNX Nifty lost 6.70 points or 0.12% to 5544.75. On the NSE, Bank Nifty lost 1.11% to 11020.95, CNX IT tumbled 0.26% to 6609.55 while CNX mid- cap gained 0.87% to 8034.90 and CNX Nifty Junior surged by 1.74% to 11,185.40. India's food inflation numbers have managed to extend the downtrend for second straight week and have moderated sharply to 7.70% for the week ended April 30 from 8.53% seen in the previous week. India's industrial growth-IIP has surprisingly jumped to 7.3% in March from 3.6% in February; however the Industrial production had grown 15.5% a year ago.

WEEK AHEAD

With the prices of crude oil and FII movements being the constant decisive factors for the markets, the investors in the coming week would be watching the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) data for the month of April for cues. As per the street expectation that India's wholesale price index likely rose 8.43 percent in April from a year earlier, slower than March's 8.98 percent increase due to base effect. Moreover, the postponed meeting of Empowered Group of Ministers (EGoM) for a decision on increasing the prices of diesel and domestic LPG will be taken only by May 17 or 18. Earlier EGoM was to meet on May 11, 2011 to consider hiking the diesel price by Rs 3-4 a litre and domestic LPG rates by Rs 20-25 a cylinder. Moreover trend line drawn adjoining two significant bottoms 5177 and 5232 , next level of support could be around 5430 level where possibility of bounce back couldn't be rule out. Hence clients are advised to remain cautious and use 'Buy on Dip' strategy on any substantial correction. On the flip side 5760-5770 (200 DMA) could be the key resistance zone where we might see some selling pressures. Any closing above this level with substantial volumes may boost the traders sentiment however 5945-5960 could be the next resistance zone. HAPPY TRADING......

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Nifty May Fut closed at a premium of 36.10 points Report By Mansukh 16th Mat 2011

Derivative Strategy
F & O HIGHLIGHTS
Nifty May 2011 futures closed at 5,580.85, at a premium of 36.10 points over spot closing of 5,544.75, while Nifty June 2011 futures were at 5,594.00 at a premium of 49.25 points over spot closing. The near month May 2011 derivatives contract expires on Thursday, May 26, 2011. Nifty May futures saw addition of 2.34% or 0.62 million (mn) units, taking the total outstanding open interest (OI) to 27.26 mn units.
From the most active underlying, SBI's May 2011 futures closed at a discount of 16.05 points at 2640.95 compared with spot closing of 2657.00. The number of contracts traded was 26,144.
ICICI Bank May 2011 futures were at a premium of 5.10 point at 1081.25 compared with spot closing of 1076.15. The number of contracts traded was 28,536.
Tata Motors Tata Steel May 2011 futures were at a discount of 1.35 points at 1213.50 compared with spot closing of 1214.85. The number of contracts traded was 22,518.
Tata Steel May 2011 futures were at a premium of 2.50 points at 597.40 compared with spot closing of 594.90. The number of contracts traded was 16,976.
RIL May 2011 futures were at a premium of 4.80 points at 955.35 compared with spot closing of 950.55. The number of contracts traded was 20,284.


Strike Price

Nifty Option Open Interest Distribution
Nifty May 5600 call shed 11.31 lakh shares in OI; down 15.62% and 5700 call shed 4.59 lakh shares in OI, down 6.51%. On the put side nifty May 5500 put added 8.29 lakh shares in OI, up 14.20% and 5400 put added 4.93 lakh in OI, up 6.71%. The put-call ratio of stock option increased from 0.33 to 0.36 while put-call ratio of index option increased from 0.88 to 0.89. On the whole the put call ratio was at 0.87.


Nifty May Fut closed at a premium of 7.75 points 11th-May-2011

Derivative Strategy

F & O HIGHLIGHTS
Nifty May 2011 futures closed at 5,549.00, at a premium of 7.75 points over spot closing of 5,541.25, while Nifty June 2011 futures were at 5,558.00 at a premium of 16.75 points over spot closing. The near month May 2011 derivatives contract expires on Thursday, May 26, 2011. Nifty May futures saw addition of 4.86% or 1.22 million (mn) units, taking the total outstanding open interest (OI) to 26.52 mn units.
From the most active underlying, Tata Motors May 2011 futures closed at a discount of 7.50 points at 1179.50 compared with spot closing of 1187.00. The number of contracts traded was 18,345.
ICICI Bank May 2011 futures were at a discount of 0.60 point at 1077.00 compared with spot closing of 1077.60. The number of contracts traded was 16,884.
SBI's May 2011 futures were at a premium of 5.80 points at 2632.95 compared with spot closing of 2627.15. The number of contracts traded was 13,414.
Infosys May 2011 futures were at a discount of 5.65 points at 2870.00 compared with spot closing of 2875.65. The number of contracts traded was 11,215.
HUL May 2011 futures were at a discount of 1.50 points at 296.30 compared with spot closing of 297.80. The number of contracts traded was 11,926.


Nifty Option Open Interest Distribution
Nifty May 5600 call added 13.79 lakh shares in OI, up 26.77% and 5700 call added 6.83 lakh shares in OI, up 11.09%. On the put side nifty May 5500 put shed 2.99 lakh shares in OI, down 5.20% and 5400 put added 4.77 lakh in OI, up 8.19%. The put-call ratio of stock option increased from 0.33 to 0.34 while put-call ratio of index option increased from 0.81 to 0.92. On the whole the put call ratio was at 0.89.

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Nifty May Fut closed at a discount of 3.50 points

Derivative Strategy
F & O HIGHLIGHTS
Nifty May 2011 futures closed at 5,547.95, at a discount of 3.50 points over spot closing of 5,551.45, while Nifty June 2011 futures were at 5,562.75 at a premium of 11.30 points over spot closing. The near month May 2011 derivatives contract expires on Thursday, May 26, 2011. Nifty May futures saw addition of 0.21% or 0.05 million (mn) units, taking the total outstanding open interest (OI) to 27.80 mn units.
From the most active underlying, ICICI Bank May 2011 futures closed at a premium of 0.85 points at 1080.25 compared with spot closing of 1079.40. The number of contracts traded was 30,421.
SBI's May 2011 futures were at a premium of 3.80 point at 2651.70 compared with spot closing of 2647.90. The number of contracts traded was 21,492.
Tata Motors May 2011 futures were at a discount of 6.05 points at 1190.00 compared with spot closing of 1196.05. The number of contracts traded was 24,053.
Infosys May 2011 futures were at a discount of 17.00 points at 2865.45 compared with spot closing of 2882.45. The number of contracts traded was 11,278.
Axis Bank May 2011 futures were at a premium of 1.30 points at 1258.50 compared with spot closing of 1257.20. The number of contracts traded was 12,647.




Nifty Option Open Interest Distribution
Nifty May 5600 call shed 2.59 lakh shares in OI, down 4.68% and 5700 call added 4.05 lakh shares in OI, up 6.56%. On the put side nifty May 5500 put added 7.68 lakh shares in OI, up 18.74% and 5400 put added 6.18 lakh in OI, up 11.98%. The put-call ratio of stock option remains same at 0.34 while put-call ratio of index option increased from 0.79 to 0.80. On the whole the put call ratio was at 0.78.

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Nifty May Fut closed at a discount of 1.15 points...5th-May-2011

Derivative Strategy
F & O HIGHLIGHTS
Nifty May 2011 futures closed at 5,536.00, at a discount of 1.15 points over spot closing of 5,537.15, while Nifty June 2011 futures were at 5,547.00 at a premium of 9.85 points over spot closing. The near month May 2011 derivatives contract expires on Thursday, May 26, 2011. Nifty May futures saw addition of 5.47% or 1.45 million (mn) units, taking the total outstanding open interest (OI) to 28.00 mn units.
From the most active underlying, SBI's May 2011 futures closed at a premium of 8.30 points at 2624.70 compared with spot closing of 2616.40. The number of contracts traded was 29,022.
ICICI Bank May 2011 futures were at a premium of 1.05 point at 1057.20 compared with spot closing of 1056.15. The number of contracts traded was 26072.
Tata Motors May 2011 futures were at a premium of 0.45 points at 1159.70 compared with spot closing of 1159.25. The number of contracts traded was 18,095.
Axis Bank May 2011 futures were at a premium of 5.00 points at 1240.00 compared with spot closing of 1235.00. The number of contracts traded was 14,863.
Tata Steel May 2011 futures were at a premium of 2.15 points at 591.40 compared with spot closing of 589.25. The number of contracts traded was 14,652.


Nifty Open Interest

Nifty Option Open Interest Distribution
Nifty May 5600 call added 13.37 lakh shares in OI, up 36.70% and 5700 call added 12.10 lakh shares in OI, up 20.56%. On the put side nifty May 5500 put added 6.44 lakh shares in OI, up 14.29% and 5400 put added 5.54 lakh in OI, up 13.38%. The put-call ratio of stock option increased from 0.32 to 0.34 while put-call ratio of index option increased from 0.75 to 0.83. On the whole the put call ratio was at 0.81.

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Derivative Strategy On Futures And Options - Mansukh 2nd-May-2011

Derivative Strategy Report
F & O HIGHLIGHTS

Future & Option (F&O) total turnover stood at Rs 101034.98 crore on April 29, and the total numbers of contracts traded on the day were 3555026.
Of the total turnover, Index Futures contributed Rs 13211.83 crore, Stock Futures Rs 13710.62 crore, and Index Options Rs 71458.45 crore while the contribution of the Stock Options was of Rs 2654.08 crore.
For the day the total F&O PutCall ratio stood at 0.94 while Index Options PutCall ratio was 0.97 and that of Stock Options was 0.38
The top five scrips with highest PCR on OI were Siemens 2.89, Mpasis 1.33, Reliance Infrastructure 1.24, HCL Tech1.11 and Bank of India 1.
Among most active underlyings ICICI Bank witnessed an addition of 4.06% in the May month futures contract, followed by Reliance which saw an addition of 3.58% of OI in the near month contract. SBI witnessed an addition of 5.81% in the next-month futures; followed by Infosys witnessed an addition of 8.05% in the May month futures contract and L&T witnessed an addition of 13.64% in the May month futures contract.

Open Interest Gainer & Looser

Nifty Open Interest
Nifty Option Open Interest Distribution
Nifty May 5800 call added 18.07 lakh shares in OI, up 89.79% and 5900 call added 8.91 lakh shares in OI, up 37.02%. On the put side nifty May 5700 put added 10.76 lakh shares in OI, up 30.33% and 5600 put added 9.61 lakh in OI, up 24.99%. The put-call ratio of stock option decreased from 0.42 to 0.38 while put-call ratio of index option increased from 0.79 to 0.97. On the whole the put call ratio was at 0.94.

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